Title race : Wide open?

Round 32 of the FA Premier League 2006/07 added some much needed spice in the title race. Prior to last weekend, Manchester United were in the driving seat, playing some great football and everybody’s favourite to stop Jose Mourinho delivering a 3rd consecutive league title. On the other hand, Chelsea were grinding out the results in a much less convincing manner. They needed a late late goal from Salomon Kalou to beat bottom team Watford, and were hardly as entertaining as their rivals from Manchester. As much as The Special One can say to the media to pile the pressure on front runners Manchester United, in many eyes the Red Devils have the title in the bag with a 6 point lead over Roman’s Riches. Albeit not as certain as Inter Milan who are almost 20 points ahead of 2nd placed Roma in the Serie A, 6 points are still enough to convince many that on current form, Chelsea do not have enough in them to pull of such an upset with 7 games to go.

Then round 32 happened.

Chelsea saw off a Spurs side exhausted from a journey to Seville barely 36 hours earlier with a long range effort from Ricardo Carvalho. A couple of hours later, Rio Ferdinand scored an amazing own goal to hand Portsmouth the win, which cut the Red Devils’ lead in half to 3 points.

With 6 games still to go, and Chelsea yet to host Manchester United at Stamford Bridge in May, suddenly everyone’s touting Chelsea as the favourite to lift the tile.

Will they be able to do it? Or do Sir Alex’s boys still have the lead in this 2 horse race?

I’m going to look at the remaining games for both teams, look at these games individually, make some predictions, and draw my very own imaginary conclusion.

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Manchester United

17 Apr – Sheffield United (H)
No problems here for Sir Alex. Comfortable win for Sir Alex. 3 points.

21 Apr – Middlesbrough (H)
Don’t see Boro doing much to cause many problems. 3 points.

28 Apr – Everton (A)
Tough visit to Goodison Park to play an Everton side who’re in a 5 horse race for 5th spot. Man Utd to sneak the win though. 3 points.

05 May – Manchester City (A)
Trouble trouble at Manchester City. United have got too much for the Citizens. 3 points.

09 May – Chelsea (A)
Somehow I don’t see Chelsea winning this. Draw for me. 1 point.

13 May – West Ham (H)
Could potentially be a tough game, especially on the last round of the season. Depending on how the relegation situation is like on May 13, United could find themselves playing West Ham who are fighting for survival. Not going to be easy. But I’ll still go for a United win. 3 points.

Total points at the end of season : 94 points.

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Chelsea

18 Apr – West Ham (A)
West Ham are in decent form at the moment, but Chelski have got too much for them. 3 points.

22 Apr – Newcastle (A)
Never easy going to St. James’ Park, but Chelsea will be professional and do their business. 3 points.

28 Apr – Bolton (H)
Luckily for Chelsea, Bolton aren’t anywhere near the team they were earlier in the season. 3 points.

06 May – Arsenal (A)
Say what you like. Arsenal may lose to West Ham at home, but against the big teams, big players turn up and Wenger’s boys might just do Sir Alex a favour by sneaking a win over Chelsea. (Not like Arsene would be too happy about it, though). Arsenal win for me. 0 points.

09 May – Manchester United (H)
The so called ‘title decider’, but this game depends largely also on the game at The Emirates 3 days earlier. If Chelsea lose to Arsenal, it could be all over by the time United visit Stamford Bridge. Nevertheless, Sir Alex won’t like losing to The Special One. All even here, 1 point.

13 May – Everton (H)
Everton are a tough nut to crack. You get the feeling that if this game was at Goodison Park, David Moyes might just do enough to cause Chelsea some problems. But not away. Chelsea to win comfortably. 3 points.

Total points at end of season : 88 points.

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So there you go. I’ve decided to be bold and predict that losing to Pompey on Saturday was merely a dent in Manchester United’s title ambitions. The way they’ve been playing this season, can you really question it? Chelsea have obviously got the tougher remaining fixtures of the two. And say Emmanuel Adebayor sneaks a freakish winning goal against Chelsea at The Emirates on May 6th, Man Utd will even have the comfort of losing to West Ham (who might need the 3 points desperately to stay in the Premier League) on the last day and still win the league.

But let’s just think of other possibilities. Let’s say Chelsea DO beat both Arsenal and United, with United also winning all their remaining games (except the Chelsea one), United still have a far superior goal difference as compared to Chelsea’s. That goal difference has to be worth at least 1 point.

The pressure was on United on Saturday to beat Portsmouth after Chelsea recorded a hard fought win over Tottenham. And United buckled under that pressure. Right now, however, it’s a reversal of roles. The pressure is on Chelsea now to win all their remaining games and leave the race open until the last minute of the season. Some how I have a feeling that we won’t need to wait until then.

And oh, just in case you were wondering, I’m not a Red Devil. Far from it.

- Blinque